The Future Looks Bright

Queensland’s property market is shaping up for another year of accelerated growth, with Brisbane and major regional centres - including the Gold and Sunshine Coasts - forecast to achieve double-digit price growth in 2026.

Dene Tucker is a Licenced Real Estate Agent selling residential property all over the Greater Brisbane area.

According to SQM Research’s annual Housing Boom and Bust Report, Brisbane dwelling values are expected to rise by 10 to 15 percent under the base-case scenario, positioning the city among just four nationwide markets tipped to outperform the southern capitals. The Sunshine Coast is forecast to mirror this growth, while Mackay/Airlie Beach is projected to increase by 7 to 12 percent and the Gold Coast by 7 to 11 percent.

These projections place Queensland’s key markets well above the national capital-city average growth forecast of 6 to 10 per cent. While Perth and Darwin are also expected to lead the nation with gains of 12 to 16 per cent, and Adelaide forecast for 10 to 14 percent growth, Sydney and Melbourne are anticipated to trail, with projected rises of 3 to 6 percent and 4 to 7 percent respectively.

SQM Research Managing Director Louis Christopher attributed Queensland’s strong outlook to recent interest rate cuts and continued government support for first-home buyers, both of which are expected to sustain buyer demand across the state. He also highlighted Brisbane’s diverse economic foundations, including mining support services, energy and export industries, a robust tourism sector, and significant infrastructure investment ahead of the 2032 Olympic Games.

Population growth and constrained housing supply are placing pressure on Queensland’s rental market. Brisbane alone is forecast to welcome between 40,000 and 50,000 new residents, while rental vacancy rates have tightened to below 1 per cent since 2024.

Over the same period, residential listings have declined by 12 to 17 per cent year-on-year.

“As a result, Brisbane’s housing market is increasingly undersupplied, shifting decisively towards a seller-favourable environment as buyer demand remains strong,” Mr Christopher said.

The report notes that while affordability constraints and potential interest rate movements may temper growth, the city’s outlook remains firmly underpinned by supply shortages. National population growth is assumed to remain moderate at approximately 390,000 people, generating demand for around 150,000 new dwellings. Although dwelling completions are forecast to reach 180,000, creating a modest surplus on paper, underlying demand remains elevated.

SQM Research modelled three alternative scenarios—sticky inflation, slowdown spillover, and economic rebound. Across all scenarios, Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide are expected to deliver double-digit growth, driven by tight supply conditions and strong economic momentum.

Even under less favourable economic conditions, such as delayed rate relief or rising unemployment, Brisbane and Queensland’s major hubs are still forecast to record positive growth of up to 12 per cent in 2026.

Source: REA Group & SQM Research

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